Audio Files: Westerners, Russophiles and the Enemy Image

 

Summary:

Sir Roderic Lyne, British Ambassador to Russia 2000-2004, began by asking, “Whatever happened to the Common European Home? -- ‘Europe whole and free,’ ‘Greater Europe – from Vancouver to Vladivostok’?”  Russia-West convergence peaked in 2003-2004 but ended in 2004.  Lyne outlined the major achievements, followed by the disagreements. 

What are the fundamental issues underlying the conflict we now see between Russia and the West?  Lyne argued that one major reason why the Putin leadership ceased trying to build good relations with the West was the strong rise in the oil price that began in 2002.  This relieved the Kremlin of the conviction that it needed to reform the economy in order to survive.  By 2008, with the oil price at $100 a barrel, the Kremlin felt “We are rich, we do not need to modernise our economy; neither do we need to listen to the West.”  Lyne listed other reasons for Russia’s loss of trust in the West, notably NATO enlargement and Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, which convinced Putin that the Western leaders in whom he had invested much had betrayed him on issues of real strategic importance to Russia.  These and other issues have led to a downward spiral.  Russia is now convinced that the West is waging economic war on Russia.  So why would it not be right for Russia to respond?

Is this a legacy of the Cold War?  How much is it the result of mistakes made by the West?  Or is it caused by Russia’s perception of itself as a Great Power?  These are all contributory factors, but Lyne saw an irreconcilable conflict between the Russian and Western perceptions of the former Soviet space – the Baltic states, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.  These are seen by the West as sovereign, independent states.  But for centuries they have been integral to Russia’s zone of special interests.  As a Great Power, Russia does not feel bound by rules made by smaller countries…  

How can we find a solution to the problem of the countries in between?  Are we looking at a conflict that is permanent, or is it cyclical?  Sir Roderic offers his comments to all these questions in his talk, which you can listen to.