Empire in a Heating World
Gerard Toal
The lasting legacy of the war in Ukraine may be a more militarized, fossil-fuelled world drifting further from climate justice, says UC senior network member Gerard Toal for Canadian Dimension.
Today marks the four-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It was never supposed to last this long. Indeed, Vladimir Putin, who bears sole responsibility for launching this disaster, thought it would be wrapped up in
a few weeks. He should have known better, having watched George W. Bush’s blunder in Iraq and, earlier, Leonid Brezhnev’s in Afghanistan. But, like many leaders before him, he fell prey to false optimism about war.
The result has been devastating for ordinary people, for Ukraine, Russia, the European Union, and for our collective planetary future. The number of dead and wounded is not known but estimates put it at well over one million in Russia, and perhaps half that in Ukraine. Officially, the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed on the battlefield is 55,000. It is likely far higher. Ukraine now has severe personnel shortages in its armed forces, a challenge made more acute by a broader demographic collapse: its population today is 17 million people smaller than it was at independence after the Soviet Union’s fall. War has made Ukraine’s demographic crisis more acute.
The psychological burdens of the war have been considerable for ordinary Ukrainians, both in the country and in the diaspora. Facing irregular assaults from drones and missiles, and related infrastructure failures, Ukrainians have demonstrated remarkable resilience. A poll in December 2025 found that 62 percent are ready to endure war as long as is necessary. Yet estimates suggest that at least half of those living in Ukraine suffer from some degree of post-traumatic stress disorder.
