Reflections on Climate, Geopolitics, and Emerging Energy Technologies: A Book Talk with Dr. Gerard Toal

I recently had the opportunity to discuss Oceans Rise, Empires Fall: The Geopolitics of Climate Catastrophe with its author, Dr. Gerard Toal, but the conversation span wider than just the book itself. Below is a summary of our conversation—touching on the book’s key themes—and a few additional personal thoughts on where emerging energy technologies might fit into the broader climate puzzle. 

Revisiting Oceans Rise, Empires Fall
Dr. Toal’s book lays out a deeply unsettling view of how modern geopolitics, fueled by the struggle for territory and resources, runs headlong into the climate emergency. He shows that the world’s great powers—particularly when rooted in militarized, fossil-driven economies—tend to see global affairs through a zero-sum lense. Political leaders and states may talk about climate action, but they regularly default to hard-power manoeuvres and short-term security fixes.

One of Dr. Toal’s core arguments is that, historically, great powers have prioritized sovereignty and strategic dominance over any meaningful collective environmental vision. The pursuit of “hard” security ends up undermining “common” security, especially when it comes to planetary threats like sea-level rise or polar ice melt. By tracing episodes of conflict, from the Cold War to present-day tensions, he illustrates how easy it is for geopolitical rivalries to override global collaboration—no matter how dire the science on rising temperatures may be.

The War in Ukraine and Climate Distraction
In discussing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Dr. Toal pointed out that this war is a near-textbook example of how a state’s territorial anxieties can derail global climate goals. Military action not only has catastrophic direct impacts—destruction of infrastructure, massive emissions during conflict—but also saps the attention of policy-makers who might otherwise focus on decarbonization. The world can become so fixated on sanctions, arms transfers, and power balances that it forgets the accelerating climate crisis in the background.

According to Dr. Toal, this is precisely what Oceans Rise, Empires Fall warns against: allowing “geopolitical condition red” to crowd out cooperation on any scale. Meanwhile, real and immediate threats—wildfires, floods, droughts—do not respect national borders, nor do they pause for ceasefires.

The Trump Legacy in the United States
In discussing the U.S. specifically, we looked back at the Trump era and its “America First” posture. While the federal administration’s stance was often skeptical of global climate agreements, Dr. Toal acknowledged that it did not entirely shut down private innovation or state-level efforts. Entrepreneurs and local governments continued to invest in renewables and advanced energy solutions. Still, federal ambivalence or outright hostility toward climate collaboration meant that bigger, cohesive national policies largely stalled.

Now, the question becomes: how much did that four-year window stall global progress on decarbonization? Or is it more accurate to say that, although some momentum was lost, the shift toward green tech kept plodding along at subnational levels? As Dr. Toal suggests, once militarized priorities dominate in Washington—or in any major capital—the impetus for robust climate leadership diminishes, and the result is often a scattered patchwork of climate initiatives rather than a concerted push.

Where Emerging Technologies Could Help
Although technology adoption wasn’t a direct focus of our panel, I’ve been reflecting on ways next-generation systems can potentially mitigate some of the challenges Dr. Toal highlights. One example is how distributed ledger technology might improve the integration of renewable energy onto the grid. We didn’t cover this point in our conversation, but it strikes me as a practical extension of the book’s argument: if global politics is messy and governments are often entangled in conflict, but climate disasters recognize no ideology or national borders, maybe decentralized solutions can keep progress moving on the local level?

In many places, grids are already hitting limits when intermittent sources like solar and wind surge onto the system, and the challenges of their interconnectedness have steadily gained momentum. A distributed ledger can help track production, balance loads, and handle financial settlements in near real time—especially for smaller producers or “prosumers” who need straightforward ways to transact with each other or with local utilities. This might encourage more renewables on the grid, lowering overall emissions without waiting for top-down edicts. At the same time, decentralized solutions remove the single point of failure in energy grids, which have recently become cybersecurity targets for Russian hackers, and seem like a good fit for streamlining decarbonization - a challenge that is inherently decentralized. While advanced distributed solutions can face regulatory hurdles and won’t single-handedly solve the geopolitical tensions Dr. Toal describes, I thought it’d be interesting to mention them as one of the potential innovations in the space, as I’ve lately been professionally focusing on them. They’re, however, not the only solution to climate disasters, and I’ve given more insight into them just to spark curiosity rather than advocate for them as the sole panacea. 

A Cautious Note on Adoption
Still, it’s worth being realistic about adoption hurdles. Even advanced technologies can encounter regulatory pushback or public skepticism. Over the past decade, blockchain or “web3” platforms have generated both intrigue and wariness, and any approach to energy markets must prove it’s stable, ethical, and not a distraction from the real goal: cutting emissions. That said, these initiatives could offer pockets of innovation, even if national governments remain preoccupied with power struggles.

In the end, decentralized energy solutions are just one possibility among many. They aren’t a panacea, nor do they solve the overarching geopolitical tension that Dr. Toal’s book contends is blocking the path to a safer climate. But as an educator or practitioner, I see the value in exploring them, especially if they can drive local resilience and reduce dependence on large fossil-powered grids.

Moving Forward
I walked away from the panel thinking about Dr. Toal’s sobering message: real climate leadership tends to lose out when states zero in on militarized, growth-obsessed agenda. The necessity of common security—curbing emissions, safeguarding fragile ecosystems—can easily slip down the list of priorities if another geopolitical flashpoint erupts. Yet there’s a glimmer of optimism. Even when national policy seems stalled or fixated on conflict, smaller-scale or market-driven solutions can push decarbonization onward.

That duality—knowing how dire things look at the macro level, yet seeing sparks of progress in technology and local initiatives—captures the tension in Oceans Rise, Empires Fall. Yes, geopolitics might overshadow everything else. But as Dr. Toal points out, the climate crisis won’t wait. Perhaps the most pragmatic path forward is combining big-picture advocacy for global cooperation with targeted, (decentralized) innovations that keep forging pockets of climate action no matter how tumultuous the world scene becomes.